内容来源：https://www.theverge.com/column/837779/anthropic-ai-bubble-warning

内容总结：

AI行业隐现泡沫风险，Anthropic CEO暗批竞争对手激进策略

在近日举行的DealBook峰会上，人工智能公司Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代虽未直接点名，但言辞间明显指向竞争对手OpenAI，对其激进的“豪赌”式发展模式与巨额“循环交易”发出警告，引发业界对AI行业经济泡沫的担忧。

阿莫代在访谈中刻意划清了自家公司与“某些竞争对手”的路线差异。他将AI产业区分为“技术面”和“经济面”，并直言对经济侧存在忧虑。他警告称，即便技术前景全部实现，“生态系统中有些玩家如果只是犯了一个小小的时机错误，也可能导致严重后果”。

他特别批评了行业内的“YOLO”（意为“不计后果地豪赌”）心态，指出若有人“天生就想豪赌，或者只喜欢庞大的数字，就可能把进度调得过快”。此外，他还提及芯片供应商（如英伟达）投资AI公司、后者又将资金用于购买其芯片的“循环交易”模式。阿莫代承认Anthropic也有类似合作，但“规模远小于其他一些玩家”。他暗示了OpenAI对外宣扬的惊人算力建设投入，并警示：“如果开始层层叠加，达到巨额数字，声称‘到2027或2028年我需要每年赚2000亿美元’，那么你就有可能过度扩张。”

阿莫代的核心论点围绕其内部使用的“不确定性锥”概念展开。他透露，Anthropic年收入已连续三年实现十倍增长，但对未来规模仍感“非常不确定”。这种不确定性因数据中心建设周期长而加剧——2027年的算力需求现在就必须决策。采购不足会流失客户，过度投资则可能破产。

相比之下，他强调Anthropic专注于企业客户市场，利润更高、收入更可预测，结构上比面向消费者的业务更安全。“我们不需要启动任何‘红色警报’。”此番言论被外界视为对OpenAI此前因竞争压力宣布进入“代码红色”状态的间接回应。

阿莫代的此番表态，在OpenAI等公司高举高打、疯狂扩张的行业背景下，为火热的AI赛道敲响了一记关于财务纪律与可持续性的警钟。

中文翻译：

本文节选自科技通讯《信息源》（作者亚历克斯·希斯），该通讯聚焦人工智能与科技产业动态，每周为The Verge订阅用户提供独家内容。

Anthropic对AI泡沫发出"YOLO"警告

在近日的DealBook峰会上，Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代虽未指名道姓，却将矛头直指OpenAI的"YOLO式"激进策略与大规模循环交易。

面对主持人安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金的提问，这位AI新贵掌门人用大量时间划清自家公司与"某竞争对手"的战略界限。当被问及AI行业是否存在泡沫时，阿莫代将"技术层面"与"经济层面"剥离开来，随后给出了犀利剖析。

"技术层面我非常笃定，"他表示，"但经济层面确实存在隐忧。即便技术完全兑现承诺，若生态系统中某些参与者出现时机误判——哪怕只是毫厘之差——也可能引发严重后果。"

究竟谁可能成为问题制造者？尽管索尔金再三追问，阿莫代始终拒绝点出OpenAI或萨姆·奥特曼的名字，但答案已不言自明。

"有些参与者正在采取'YOLO'（孤注一掷）策略，"他直言不讳，"假设某人天生热衷冒险，或是痴迷于庞大数字，就可能把旋钮拧得过猛。"

他同时谈及英伟达等芯片供应商投资AI公司、后者又将资金用于采购芯片的"循环交易"模式。阿莫代承认Anthropic也参与过此类交易，但强调"规模远小于某些同行"，并推演了合理运作的数学模型：新建千兆瓦级数据中心五年需投入约百亿美元，供应商预先投资，AI初创公司则随收入增长偿还相应份额。

虽然仍未指名道姓，但他显然影射了OpenAI大肆宣扬的惊人算力建设规模。"原则上这并无不妥，"他话锋一转，"但若层层叠加至天文数字，声称'到2027或2028年需实现年收入2000亿美元'，那确实可能让企业过度扩张。"

不确定性的锥形区

阿莫代论述的核心是他内部常用的"不确定性锥形"概念。他透露Anthropic年收入已连续三年实现十倍增长：2023年从零突破至1亿美元，2024年达10亿美元，预计今年底将冲至80-100亿美元区间。（作为对比，奥特曼曾表示OpenAI预计2025年化收入将超200亿美元。）但阿莫代坦言无法预知明年能否达到200亿或500亿美元："这存在极大不确定性。"

这种不确定性之所以令人担忧，在于数据中心建设周期长达一至两年。2027年的算力需求现在就必须决策。采购不足将导致客户流向竞争对手，过度投资则可能引发破产危机。阿莫代补充道："锥形区的安全边际本质上取决于我们的利润率。"

"我们的采购量要确保即使在最悲观情境下（概率分布末10%）也能从容应对，"他解释道，"尾部风险永远存在，但我们正努力妥善管理。"通过聚焦利润率更高、收入更可预测的企业级市场，阿莫代认为Anthropic的结构性风险远低于消费导向型业务："我们完全不需要启动任何'红色警报'。"

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英文来源：

This is an excerpt of Sources by Alex Heath, a newsletter about AI and the tech industry, syndicated just for The Verge subscribers once a week.
Anthropic’s AI bubble ‘YOLO’ warning
Dario Amodei appears to take shots at OpenAI’s ‘YOLOing’ and big, circular deals.
Dario Amodei appears to take shots at OpenAI’s ‘YOLOing’ and big, circular deals.
Dario Amodei took the stage at the DealBook Summit on Wednesday to throw punches without naming names.
The Anthropic CEO spent a good chunk of the interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin drawing a careful line between his company’s approach and that of a certain competitor. When asked about whether the AI industry is in a bubble, Amodei separated the “technological side” from the “economic side” and then twisted the knife.
“On the technological side, I feel really solid,” he said. “On the economic side, I have my concerns where, even if the technology fulfills all its promises, I think there are players in the ecosystem who, if they just make a timing error, they just get it off by a little bit, bad things could happen.”
Who might those players be? Despite Sorkin’s prodding, Amodei wouldn’t name OpenAI or Sam Altman. But he didn’t have to.
“There are some players who are YOLOing,” he said. “Let’s say you’re a person who just kind of constitutionally wants to YOLO things or just likes big numbers, then you may turn the dial too far.”
He also touched on “circular deals,” where chip suppliers like Nvidia invest in AI companies that then spend those funds on their chips. Amodei acknowledged that Anthropic has done some of these deals, though “not at the same scale as some other players,” and walked through the math of how they can work responsibly: A new gigawatt data center costs roughly $10 billion to build over five years. A vendor invests upfront, and an AI startup pays back its share of the deal as revenue grows.
While he again didn’t name names, he referenced the eye-popping numbers OpenAI has been trumpeting for its compute buildout. “I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that in principle,” he said. “Now, if you start stacking these where they get to huge amounts of money, and you’re saying, ‘By 2027 or 2028 I need to make $200 billion a year,’ then yeah, you can overextend yourself.”
The cone of uncertainty
The heart of Amodei’s argument was a concept he’s been using internally: the “cone of uncertainty.”
He said that Anthropic’s revenue has grown tenfold annually for three years, from zero to $100 million in 2023, $100 million to $1 billion in 2024, and now somewhere between $8 billion and $10 billion by this year’s end. (Sam Altman, by comparison, has said that OpenAI expects to end 2025 with an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $20 billion.) But even Amodei doesn’t know if Anthropic will hit $20 billion or $50 billion next year. “It’s very uncertain.”
That uncertainty is concerning, he explained, because data centers take one to two years to build. Decisions on 2027 compute needs have to be made now. Buy too little, and you lose customers to competitors. Buy too much, and you risk bankruptcy. Amodei added, “How much buffer there is in that cone is basically determined by my margins.”
“We want to buy enough that we’re confident even in the 10th percentile scenario,” he said. “There’s always a tail risk. But we’re trying to manage that risk well.” He positioned Anthropic’s enterprise focus, with higher margins and more predictable revenue, as structurally safer than that of consumer-first businesses. “We don’t have to do any code reds.”
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