内容来源：https://www.wired.com/story/openai-valuation-500-billion-skepticism/

内容总结：

【独家深度】OpenAI估值逼近5000亿美元：一场豪赌AI未来的资本盛宴

据最新市场消息，人工智能巨头OpenAI正以近5000亿美元（约合3.6万亿元人民币）估值推进融资交易，若达成将超越SpaceX和字节跳动，成为全球最具价值的非上市公司。这一数字甚至超过Palantir等科技巨头市值，对于一家"烧钱速度堪比火箭发射"的企业而言堪称天文数字。

资本市场的狂热源于两笔并行交易：软银领投的3000亿美元估值融资轮预计年底收官，而员工股二级市场交易估值已飙升至5000亿美元。目前低价份额遭抢购一空，投资者正为高价份额展开激烈角逐。

"我们正站在历史性技术革命的黎明。"一位要求匿名的OpenAI投资者对比互联网浪潮初期表示，"ChatGPT若实现20亿用户、单用户月贡献5美元收入（仅为谷歌/脸书一半水平），年收入将达1200亿美元——仅此一项就足以支撑1.5万亿美元市值。"

现实与理想之间仍存巨大鸿沟。尽管ChatGPT周活用户已达7亿，付费转化率不足10%。纽约大学斯特恩商学院Arun Sundararajan教授指出："关键问题在于，OpenAI能否维持现有用户规模，同时将单用户服务成本控制在盈利临界点。"

更值得关注的是其惊人的运营成本。2025年前七个月公司年化收入预期翻倍至120亿美元，但今年预计现金消耗达80亿美元。CEO阿尔特曼透露，大部分基础设施支出用于AI推理而非模型训练，未来建设数据中心需投入"数万亿美元"。

"投资者期待的是两三年内实现万亿市值IPO，否则难以覆盖投资成本。"纽约大学 Glenn Okun教授坦言这种预期存在巨大风险。但支持者认为企业端业务增长强劲——本月付费企业用户突破500万，广告变现潜力尚未完全释放。

当前AI赛道投资热度持续攀升。PitchBook数据显示，2025年风险投资资金的65%流向AI领域，前OpenAI CTO创立的Thinking Machines Lab获得史上最大种子轮投资，Meta与Scale AI逾140亿美元的合作创下行业第二大规模交易。

阿尔特曼本人将这种狂热称为"必然的泡沫"，但强调"每次技术泡沫都孕育着真实变革"。在投资者叙事中，ChatGPT将成为下一代互联网入口，竞争对手终将黯然退场——这个愿景本身已价值五千亿美元。

正如匿名投资者所言："故事尚未终局，风险真实存在，但我们赌的是重塑时代的可能性。"（本文基于Kylie Robison专栏内容编译整合）

中文翻译：

据悉，OpenAI即将以约5000亿美元的估值完成新一轮融资，这一数字将使其成为全球最具价值的私人企业——超越SpaceX、抖音母公司字节跳动乃至Palantir等上市公司巨头。对于这家"烧钱速度堪比天文数字"的公司而言，这个估值令人瞠目。这究竟如何实现？

据Axios报道，实际存在两笔交易：软银领投的3000亿美元估值轮次预计年底交割，而员工股二次出售的估值则高达5000亿美元。多数低价份额已被抢购一空，投资者正竞相争夺高价份额。

一位要求匿名的OpenAI投资者（援引保密协议）将其比作互联网黎明时期："我们正处在历史上最重大的技术变革节点，其影响规模将持续超越人们想象。"

该投资者认为5000亿美元估值的投资逻辑很简单：假设ChatGPT实现20亿用户规模，单用户月均贡献5美元收入（仅相当于谷歌或Facebook的一半水平），年收入将达1200亿美元。"仅ChatGPT单项业务就足以支撑1.5万亿美元市值，这尚未计入企业服务、智能体研发、硬件创新等所有其他项目。"

诚然，5美元的单价只是粗略估算。当前ChatGPT周活用户达7亿，但付费用户不足10%（OpenAI拒绝对此数据置评）。这位投资者的预测颇具野心，似乎低估了谷歌或Meta等巨头抢占市场的威胁。纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授阿伦·桑达拉拉扬指出："关键问题在于，OpenAI能否维持现有用户规模，同时将成本控制在实现单用户月均5美元盈利的水平。"

这场豪赌的核心是认定OpenAI将成为下一个Facebook或谷歌。纽约大学商学院教授格伦·奥肯表示："以5000亿美元估值入场的投资者预期两三年内IPO估值突破万亿，否则投资回报率难以合理化。"这意味着需要几乎一夜之间跃升全球上市公司市值前十。虽然投资者声称持有更长期视野，但也承认"考虑到公司规模，IPO显然是最合理的出路"。

更匪夷所思的奇迹曾在OpenAI上演：2025年前七个月，其年化收入预期翻倍至120亿美元，意味着月入10亿美元；企业用户激增至500万付费客户，广告收益潜力更不可估量。投资者认为这彰显了必胜势头："人们总抗拒前所未有的事物，但这家公司从收入增速到AI技术突破始终在创造历史。"

美梦背后是同步膨胀的支出：今年预计现金消耗达80亿美元，奥特曼在旧金山晚宴透露大部分基础设施成本用于推理而非训练，并预计"不久将来"在数据中心投入数万亿美元。这意味着若ChatGPT真实现亿级用户，服务成本将达万亿规模。

桑达拉拉扬教授指出："扩展这种高耗能技术极其昂贵。即便芯片更快更便宜，随着模型规模扩大和数十亿查询需求增长，总成本仍在攀升。"但投资者淡然看待盈利担忧，称OpenAI可将巨额成本分摊至用户群："这绝非廉价游戏，胆怯者不适合参与。"

奥肯则持怀疑态度："我们目睹的是可能难以实现预期估值的大型资本投资。"

5000亿美元估值亦有警示：私募定价反映的是少数投资者对少量股票的购买意愿，市场狂热已计入股价。奥肯表示该估值"很可能是近似值"，既包含企业价值也包含增值预期，"我们无法准确剥离这两类价值"。

当前投资者对AI初创企业展现近乎贪婪的胃口。PitchBook数据显示，今年风险投资总额的65%流向AI公司：前OpenAI CTO米拉·穆拉蒂创立的Thinking Machines Lab获得史上最大种子轮投资，Meta与Scale AI逾140亿美元的交易位列风投史上第二。

这是泡沫吗？奥特曼在晚宴上承认这一点，但以典型风格强调这实为好事："泡沫发生时，聪明人会对真实内核过度兴奋。历史多数泡沫（如科技泡沫）都有真实基础——科技确实重要，互联网确实伟大。"

初创企业估值始终反映CEO兜售愿景的能力。奥特曼将这套逻辑演绎到极致且看似奏效。投资者押注ChatGPT能像谷歌般不可或缺，数十亿用户乐于付费，竞争者黯然退场——这些能否实现已不重要，此刻这个故事本身就值五千亿。

"风险确实存在，"投资者坦言，"故事尚未终章。"

（本文源自Kylie Robison的《模范行为》通讯，过往内容可查阅此处。）
更新说明：2025年8月19日美国东部时间19:30，本刊对PitchBook的2025年风投数据报道及格伦·奥肯的引述解读进行了澄清。

英文来源：

OpenAI is reportedly on the verge of a roughly $500 billion valuation, a figure that would make it the most valuable private company in the world—bigger than SpaceX, TikTok’s parent company Bytedance, and even public giants like Palantir. It’s a staggering number for a company with an “astronomical burn rate.” How is this even possible?
As Axios reports, there are actually two deals in play: a SoftBank-led round valuing the company at $300 billion, which won’t close until year’s end, and a secondary sale of employee shares at a far steeper $500 billion valuation. Most of the cheaper shares have already been snapped up, leaving investors to fight over the pricier ones.
One OpenAI investor—who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing an NDA—compared it to the dawn of the internet. “We're in one of the biggest technology shifts [in history],” the investor tells me. “The outcomes continue to get bigger than people think.”
The investor argues that the math for investing at the $500 billion valuation is straightforward: Hypothetically, if ChatGPT hits 2 billion users and monetizes at $5 per user per month—“half the rate of things like Google or Facebook”—that’s $120 billion in annual revenue.
“That alone would support a trillion-and-a-half-dollar company, which is a pretty good return, just thinking about ChatGPT,” the investor says. “It doesn't include all the rest of the stuff they're working on, all the enterprise stuff, all the agentic stuff, all of the work they’re doing on hardware.”
Trillions of Dollars
The $5 figure is, admittedly, back-of-the-envelope math. Today, ChatGPT has 700 million weekly active users—and fewer than 10 percent of them pay for it.(OpenAI declined to comment on this figure.) The investor’s projections are ambitious, and they seem to discount the threat of major players like Google or Meta eating OpenAI’s lunch. “The half-a-trillion-dollar question now is, to what extent will OpenAI be able to retain the customers it has acquired, and simultaneously be able to bring its costs to a point where it can, in fact, monetize at [hypothetically] $5 per user per month,” says Arun Sundararajan, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
The bet here is that OpenAI is the next Facebook or Google. For investors buying in at $500 billion, “they’re expecting an IPO above a trillion in two to three years, otherwise the rate of return does not justify the investment,” says Glenn Okun, who’s also a business professor at NYU. That would mean leaping into the top 10 most valuable public companies in the world almost overnight. The investor says they have a longer time horizon than that, but “of course an IPO is the most sensible path given the scale of the company.” Though the investor admits, yes, the company would need to be valued at more than $1 trillion to make the investment worthwhile.
Stranger things have happened—particularly to OpenAI. In the first seven months of 2025, the company doubled its projected annual revenue to $12 billion, which suggests OpenAI is bringing in about $1 billion per month. Enterprise adoption has surged, too, reaching 5 million paying business users this month. Not to mention what potential advertising revenue could do to its bottom line. To the investor, these are signs of a company with the momentum to win: “People don't like unprecedented things, because most people like to pattern-match,” the investor says. “Everything this company has done has been unprecedented, from the pace of its revenue growth to the AI technology.”
It’s a nice dream. But OpenAI’s spending is ballooning alongside its revenue. It’s reportedly expecting a cash burn of $8 billion this year, and Altman said at a recent dinner in San Francisco that much of OpenAI’s infrastructure costs are for inference, as opposed to training—and he expects the startup to spend trillions of dollars on data centers in the “not very distant future.” That means in the fantastical future where ChatGPT may have billions of users, it would cost trillions of dollars to serve them.
It’s extraordinarily expensive to scale such a power-hungry technology. Even if the chips get faster and cheaper, the overall costs grow as the company works to train even bigger models and serve them to a growing user base sending off billions of queries, Sundararajan tells me.
The investor, however, brushes off profitability concerns, saying OpenAI can spread those massive costs across its entire user base. “It is not cheap, and it's not for the faint of heart in terms of investment,” they add.
Okun takes a more skeptical approach. “What we're looking at here is major capital investment with the sorts of valuations that may be very hard to to actually reach,” he says.
A New Bubble
The $500 billion headline also has caveats. Private-market pricing reflects what a small number of investors are willing to pay for a small number of shares. In other words, the feeding frenzy is factored into the share price.
"In all likelihood, it's an approximation,” Okun says of the valuation. He adds that the number reflects both firm value and any add-ons that may make it more attractive to investors. “We really can't accurately disentangle those two streams of value in order to isolate firm value.
Right now, investors appear to have a nearly insatiable appetite for AI startups. According to recent PitchBook data, 65 percent of all venture dollars raised this year have gone to AI companies. This year we saw the largest seed round investment in history at Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati. Meta’s deal with Scale AI was the second largest venture deal ever at more than $14 billion, the report adds.
Is that a bubble? Altman admitted as much at the dinner. But in classic Altman fashion, he reminded attendees that’s actually a good thing: “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” he said. “If you look at most of the bubbles in history [like] the tech bubble, there was a real thing. Tech was really important, the internet was a really big deal.”
Startup valuations have always reflected how well the CEO can sell a vision. At OpenAI, Altman cranks it up to 11, and it’s seemingly paying off. Meanwhile, investors are betting that ChatGPT becomes as indispensable as Google, that billions of people happily pay to use it, and competitors quietly fade into irrelevance. Whether any of that actually happens almost doesn’t matter. For now, the story is worth half a trillion all on its own.
“There's definitely risk in it,” the investor tells me. “The story is not fully written.”
This is an edition of Kylie Robison’s Model Behavior newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.
Update: 8/19/2025, 7:30 PM EDT: WIRED has clarified its reporting on Pitchbook's venture dollars data for 2025. WIRED also clarified an interpretation of a quote attributed to Glenn Okun. (edited)