到2035年,中央人工智能发展规划有望推动GDP增长1.7万亿美元
内容总结:
【新德里讯】印度政府近日公布一项人工智能国家战略,计划通过政策激励与产业扶持,在未来十年推动关键领域深度应用人工智能技术,预计由此创造1.7万亿美元增量经济价值。该国最高政策智库Niti Aayog制定的路线图显示,人工智能驱动有望使印度年经济增长率从当前预期的5.7%提升至8%,到2035年经济总量将达到8.3万亿美元,较原有预期提升25%。
财政部长西塔拉曼在发布仪式上强调,将采取"柔性而敏捷"的监管策略,既确保技术负责任应用,又避免过度规制扼杀创新。她表示监管应如印度央行采用的"监管沙盒"模式,与技术发展保持同步。电子信息技术部长瓦什诺则明确表态:"当创新与监管出现冲突时,政策将向创新倾斜"。
该战略聚焦金融服务、制药、制造业和汽车四大核心领域,具体措施包括建设智能工厂走廊、建立可解释信用体系、开发生物技术园区、部署5G/6G智能交通基础设施等。咨询公司麦肯锡高级合伙人卡卡指出,印度汽车行业目前仅处于自动驾驶二级水平,需通过人工智能实现技术跨越式发展。
值得注意的是,政府特别关注人工智能对就业市场的冲击,计划通过升级全国职业技术培训学院(ITI),采用"中心-辐射"模式开展人工智能技能再培训。同时建立前沿技术资源库,助力人工智能初创企业技术获取。据估算,空间技术、航空航天等前沿技术领域到2035年可贡献4750亿美元GDP增量。
塔塔集团董事长钱德拉塞卡兰承诺将加大研发投入,配合国家人工智能战略实施。分析认为,这项跨部委协同推进的计划标志着印度正式加入全球人工智能竞赛赛道,旨在2047年建国百年之际实现21万亿美元经济体的宏伟目标。
中文翻译:
新德里消息:印度政府公布了一项包含激励措施和政策支持的全面计划,旨在推动关键领域深度应用人工智能(AI)突破性技术,目标在未来十年创造额外1.7万亿美元的经济价值。
这项由印度最高政策智囊团Niti Aayog制定的AI发展路线图,为加速人工智能技术普及、激发私营企业研发活力构建了实施框架。尽管印度官方当前预测显示,在年化5.7%的增长率下,国内生产总值(GDP)将从目前的约4万亿美元增长至2035年的6.6万亿美元,但Niti Aayog指出推动AI应用可将年增长率提升至8%,使2035年经济总量达到8.3万亿美元。
根据该机构测算,到2047年印度成为发达经济体时,经济规模有望达到13万亿美元。若全力推进AI战略,这一数字可显著提升至21万亿美元。
周一发布路线图时,联邦财政部长西塔拉曼主张对AI监管采取"柔性而敏捷"的策略。她强调:"当技术全速前进时,监管必须同步跟进。我们不需要扼杀技术的监管,而需要确保技术负责任应用的规制。"她以印度储备银行的监管沙盒机制为例,指出此类实践有助于形成"轻触式监管模式"。
该路线图重点锁定四大关键领域——金融服务、制药、制造业和汽车产业。在制造业领域,政府提议建设融合清洁能源供应、数据中心与优质教育资源的智能工厂走廊;金融服务领域则计划推出可解释信用体系、反洗钱计划及国家"AI赋能金融"项目;制药与汽车行业方案包括建设生物科技园区、加速独特分子发现、部署5G/6G网络以及实时智能汽车基础设施的智慧走廊等。
麦肯锡高级合伙人诺希尔·卡卡指出,双轨制经济增长模式可使企业运营效率提升25-30%,并实现创新跨越。"以汽车领域为例,印度企业仍处于自动驾驶二级水平,而中美已达到四五级水平,这凸显了印度必须通过AI投资实现技术跃迁。"
这项计划获得产业界与政府部门的协同推进。塔塔集团董事长钱德拉塞卡兰周一表示"将全力加大研发投入,助力印度实现AI加速目标"。联邦信息技术部长瓦什瑙同时强调,印度摒弃了"立法先行"的传统科技监管路径,转而采用以创新为导向的技术-法律双轨模式。"当监管与创新产生矛盾时,我们更倾向于支持创新。实践表明,通过创新应用来演化监管框架比预先设定法律更有效。"
西塔拉曼也指出AI可能对人口红利带来的挑战,强调需通过AI技能提升计划帮助失业人群转型。她特别提到全国遍布的工业培训学院(ITI)可成为AI培训枢纽,各邦可采用"中心辐射"模式构建培训网络。中央政府已宣布拨款升级这些机构,以迎接AI时代。
此外,印度正统筹推进电信、半导体、电动汽车、生物技术和量子计算等工业应用发展,力争未来二十年跻身发达经济体行列。Niti Aayog同期推出的"前沿技术资源库"将助力AI及其他未来技术领域的初创企业获取技术资源。空间技术、航空航天与国防产业也被纳入前沿技术应用体系,预计到2035年可为GDP贡献4750亿美元的增量价值。
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英文来源:
New Delhi: The government aims to generate additional $1.7 trillion in economic value over the next decade by harnessing artificial intelligence (AI), as it unveiled a comprehensive plan consisting of incentives and policy support to deepen the adoption of the breakthrough technology by crucial sectors.
The AI vision roadmap, created by the government's premier policy think-tank Niti Aayog, lays down the framework for accelerating AI adoption in India, and boosting research and development (R&D) among private firms.
While India’s current official projection expects the size of its gross domestic product (GDP) to rise to $6.6 trillion by 2035, from about $4 trillion now, at an annualized growth rate of 5.7%, Niti Aayog projected that the push for AI adoption can accelerate India’s growth to 8% annually, swelling the size of the economy to $8.3 trillion by 2035.
By 2047, when India expects to become a developed nation, the size of the economy could rise to $13 trillion. But with AI push, it can increase significantly to $21 trillion, according Niti Aayog.
In her address following the rollout of the roadmap on Monday, Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman advocated a “soft yet agile” approach to regulating the use of AI—stating that if technology is on a sprint, regulation too should keep pace with it.
“We do not want regulation that may wipe out a technology; we want regulation for ensuring responsible application of the technology,” Sitharaman said. Referring to the Reserve Bank of India’s regulatory sandbox approach, Sitharaman added that such efforts will enable evolving a “soft touch regulatory approach.”
The roadmap proposed specific focus on four key sectors—financial services, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, and automobiles. In manufacturing, the Centre proposed creation of smart factory corridors that collate clean energy supplies, data centres and top-tier education initiatives. In financial services, proposals included setting-up explainable credit and anti-money laundering initiatives, as well as a national ‘AI for financial services’ programme. Similarly, the plan for pharmaceuticals and automotives includes setting up biotechnology parks, expediting unique molecule discovery, deploying 5G/6G connectivity, smart corridors for real-time smart car infrastructure, and more.
Noshir Kaka, senior partner at consultancy firm McKinsey & Co, said that a two-channel approach for economic growth may include a 25-30% increase in operational efficiencies in enterprises, as well as “leapfrogs” in innovation. “For instance, in the automotive space, Indian automobile firms are still at level two of autonomous driving technologies, while the likes of the US and China are at level four or five—showing the need for India to invest in AI to leapfrog its technological capabilities,” he said.
The rollout is part of a coordinated push across industry and top ministries. On Monday, Tata Sons chairperson N. Chandrasekaran said that the group “will do everything possible to increase focus on R&D, to meet India’s accelerated AI goals.”
Union information technology minister Ashwini Vaishnav, who also spoke on the occasion, said that unlike other countries that have taken a legal approach to technology regulation, that is, to make laws first and expect safety will follow, India has adopted a different techno-legal approach oriented towards fostering innovation.
“When there is a trade-off between regulation and innovation, we tend to tilt more towards innovation,” Vaishnav said. The minister explained that innovation and its application will help the country evolve the right regulatory framework rather than first prescribing a law. That approach has helped us so far and, hopefully, will keep helping us in future as well, the minister said.
Sitharaman acknowledged the challenge AI can pose to India’s demographic dividend as technology brings more efficiency into work, and highlighted the need for AI-driven upskilling of the people who may lose their jobs. She also highlighted the potential of Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) for AI training and how states can leverage these institutions.
ITIs, which exist in every district, are traditional institutions for technology training and skilling people. To adapt to the age of AI, the central government has announced funding to upgrade these ITIs, Sitharaman said. States can use a ‘hub and spoke’ model—having some main centres and others having linkages with them, for disseminating AI training, she added.
Further, development of industrial applications across telecom, semiconductors, electric vehicles, biotechnology and quantum computing are also under consideration, as India seeks to attain the developed economy status in the next two decades.
Niti Aayog also unveiled a ‘frontier tech repository’, which will look to ease technology access for startups working on AI and other future-facing technologies. Space technologies, aerospace and defence are also a part of India’s push to maximize economic growth through adoption of frontier technologies, which can add up to $475 billion in incremental gross domestic product (GDP) value by 2035 as a result of its push, the Centre added.
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文章标题:到2035年,中央人工智能发展规划有望推动GDP增长1.7万亿美元
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