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人形机器人即将到来。最终会实现吗？

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人形机器人即将到来。最终会实现吗？

内容来源：https://www.theverge.com/column/843418/humanoid-robot-hype

内容总结：

人形机器人热潮：梦想照进现实，还是又一场泡沫？

近期，一段特斯拉Optimus机器人在演示中轰然倒地的视频在社交媒体上广泛传播，引发了人们对这个炙手可热领域的重新审视。这并非特斯拉首次被质疑其机器人演示的“自主性”，此前就有演示被揭露是由真人穿着紧身衣或通过VR远程操控。这不禁让人发问：人形机器人的时代真的到来了吗？

尽管存在质疑，一场围绕人形机器子的“淘金热”已然在全球范围内爆发。从英伟达、微软、亚马逊到特斯拉，几乎所有科技巨头都将人形机器人视为下一个重要前沿，并投入重金。中国也将“具身智能”（包括人形及非人形机器人）定位为未来经济增长的关键引擎，通过政策引导和大规模投资，推动百度、蚂蚁集团等科技企业及众多初创公司涌入赛道。

表面上看，进展令人眼花缭乱：今年夏天，首届世界人形机器人奥运会在中国举行，机器人同场竞技舞蹈、格斗与田径；多家公司发布了机器人完成洗碗、叠衣等家务的视频，甚至有产品以2万美元的价格开始接受预订，试图进入家庭场景。

然而，光鲜的演示背后，现实应用依然薄弱。许多演示经过精心编排、设定或远程操控。例如，蚂蚁集团的机器人虽能“做饭”，但动作极其缓慢；一些家用机器人仍需人类远程“附体”操作。机器人体育赛事之所以有趣，恰恰是因为参赛者步履蹒跚、充满不确定性，而非技艺娴熟。

推动这一轮热潮的核心动力，被认为是人工智能的突破。大型语言模型（LLM）所展现的泛化能力，让研究者看到了赋予机器人理解并适应复杂物理世界的希望。但关键瓶颈在于数据——训练机器人所需的大量真实世界互动数据极为稀缺。为此，企业各出奇招：特斯拉让员工穿戴传感器为Optimus示范人类动作；一些公司则将尚不成熟的机器人送入家庭，以远程操控方式收集复杂任务数据。

成本正在下降，特别是在中国，入门级机型价格已低至约1400美元，这有助于更多机器人进行实地部署，从而形成“更多数据→更好模型→更实用产品”的反馈循环。然而，风险也在积聚。中国国家发改委此前已警示人形机器人领域可能存在泡沫，指出企业数量和投资规模与可行的实际应用之间存在脱节。

目前，真正全自主、能可靠完成复杂任务的商用机器人尚未出现。行业仍处于“演示驱动”阶段，距离广泛融入日常生活还有很长的路。这场机器人革命是即将叩响大门，还是将经历又一轮 hype 与幻灭的循环？时间会给出答案。但可以确定的是，在通往未来的道路上，我们或许还会看到更多令人捧腹的机器人“失败集锦”。

中文翻译：

这里是《科技回望》周刊，为您深度解析科技界的一则关键动态。若想了解更多机器人技术与人工智能资讯，请关注罗伯特·哈特。本刊于美东时间每周六上午8点送达订阅用户邮箱。点击此处订阅《科技回望》。

人形机器人时代即将到来？或许还需时日。
中国视人形机器人为经济新引擎，马斯克则想打造“百万机器人军团”。
人形机器人时代即将到来？或许还需时日。
中国视人形机器人为经济新引擎，马斯克则想打造“百万机器人军团”。

【休刊启事】《科技回望》将进入冬歇期，下一期将于2026年1月11日回归。在此期间，您可在此处浏览往期内容。

缘起
我对机器人出糗视频情有独钟。循环播放这些片段、自顾自地发笑，已成为我的一种疗愈方式。或许我有点施虐倾向，或许我该多出门走走——您大可随意评判——但这些视频总能戳中我的笑点。因此，当特斯拉Optimus机器人在迈阿密“自动驾驶可视化大会”上如被砍伐的树木般轰然倒地的视频本周在社交媒体疯传时，我自然看得目不转睛。

视频显示，马斯克备受吹捧的人形机器人正从桌后递送水瓶，却碰倒了一排水瓶，双臂胡乱上挥，随后像断了线的木偶般后仰倒地。仔细观看会发现两个细节：其手臂在跌倒时压爆水瓶溅起的小水花（这让我笑出了声），以及一个诡异如人类摘VR头显般的动作。

这并非特斯拉首次在其“自动驾驶机器人”的自主性上造假——马斯克宣称该技术是公司未来的核心。早期演示中身着紧身衣的舞者仅用于展示特斯拉机器人（即现在的Optimus）的构想，而后续演示则被揭露（从声音判断相当明显）是伪装成机器人的人类通过VR头显等设备远程操控——我们知道特斯拉在开发中确实使用这类技术。

几个世纪以来，人类始终痴迷于机器人：从古代石巨人传说与机械自动机，到现代科幻作品、无人驾驶汽车和扫地机器人，赋予无生命之物以类生命形态的构想令我们着迷。当前对人形机器人的狂热追捧很大程度上直接源于马斯克，因此当他和同行宣称将以此颠覆世界时，保持高度怀疑合情合理。誓言打造百万“机器人军团”的马斯克，其荒诞不经的预测风格早已名声在外，而机器人技术史上也历经多次泡沫浪潮。过去，技术发展总滞后于AI落地现实的热情，但如今我们被告知：技术终于成熟到可以交付了。

那么2025年“可交付”的真实图景究竟如何？

现状
当前人形机器人领域无疑正上演某种“淘金热”。所有科技巨头都在战略布局中为其留有一席之地，英伟达、Meta、软银、谷歌、亚马逊、微软、英特尔和特斯拉（这不意外）等企业正将其视为下一个科技前沿，投入重金与资源。挑战者阵营也在不断扩大：Apptronik、波士顿动力、Figure AI、1X等新兴力量纷纷涌入战局。

中国亦不甘落后。北京已将具身智能（涵盖无人机、四足机器人等非人形自主机器）定为未来经济增长关键，并以标志性的举国体制通过大规模投资、政府指令和国家补贴，力争成为全球机器人领域领导者。从蚂蚁集团、百度等科技巨头，到宇树科技、智元机器人等初创企业，悉数投身其中。

若仅观察各国发布的演示视频，您或许会误以为人形机器人未来已触手可及。今夏在中国举办的首届世界人形机器人竞技大赛上，机器人参与了舞蹈、格斗、田径等赛事。在奥运发源地希腊也举办了类似的国际人形奥林匹克竞赛。机器人格斗的流行程度超乎想象，从正规赛事、地下搏击俱乐部到与CEO的切磋，似乎无处不在。

企业也迫切希望将机器人从工厂带入家庭。支持者认为，这种人本空间正是人形机器人（而非更易生产的其他形态）值得研发的原因。Figure公司宣称其新款Figure 03机器人能承担家务，并发布了洗碗叠衣的视频。1X公司推出的Neo则号称安全且是“全球首款消费级人形机器人”——尽管视频中它完成基础家务时仍颤颤巍巍。我自问无力承担，但如果您感兴趣，1X正以2万美元单价接受预订，明年起在美国交付。

但实际应用场景依然匮乏，炫酷演示并不等同于成熟产品。尽管技术进步显著（某些进展确实令人惊叹），但演示多为预设场景、编排脚本甚至远程操控。例如，蚂蚁集团的R1机器人虽确在今年展会上为观众烹饪，但其缓慢如冰川移动的速度足以让梅丽尔·斯特里普饰演的米兰达·普利斯特利兴奋不已。同理，当意识到必须允许陌生人远程操控1X的Neo进入您家时，拥有它的吸引力便大打折扣。而机器人赛事之所以有趣，恰是因为参赛者步履蹒跚、动作笨拙且难以预测，绝非因其技艺娴熟。

这一切引出一个显而易见的问题：若技术明显不及炒作，为何众人仍对人形机器人如此狂热？因为长久以来第一次，技术开始追赶想象的说法似乎不再荒谬。

未来之路
历史上，让机器人完成人类不假思索的日常动作（如行走或端起水杯）都异常困难。硬件（尤其是软件）曾是制约因素，机器只能局限于高度结构化环境执行特定任务。AI的进步正在改变这一局面，为机器人发展注入强劲动力。

OpenAI、谷歌等企业在AI图文生成领域的突破，主要归功于驱动聊天机器人的大语言模型。其通过复杂网络识别并复现训练数据中的模式。更庞大的AI模型几乎以全网数据为训练素材，使系统能够泛化执行任务，而非遵循僵硬的编码指令。要在现实世界运作，机器人正需这种泛化能力，研发人员试图用相同方法让机器获得在物理世界生存所需的灵活认知。

核心挑战在于数据。训练大语言模型的文本数据在网络上唾手可得，但训练机器人所需的数据却难以获取。机器人需要物体在真实世界运动的精细示例，而这类数据目前远未形成规模。企业正竭力改变现状，大规模创建机器人训练数据已成为重要方向。表面看来这略显荒诞——特斯拉让员工佩戴摄像头传感器教导Optimus模仿人类行为——但这方法确实有效。这也是1X等公司将半自主机器人部署到家庭的原因：通过远程操控完成洗碗或清洁复杂物品等任务，从而收集实现完全自主所需的数据。

随着硬件成本下降与规模经济效应显现，人形机器人正变得更亲民（尤其在中国）。价格跨度极大：中国模型Bumi起售价仅1400美元，宇树科技或1X的型号约1.35万至2万美元，工业型号则可能贵过房产。但部分型号已接近消费者承受范围，意味着更多机器人正投入现实应用。这将形成反馈循环：企业获得更多数据以改进模型，制造出更优质、更受欢迎的机器人——前提是人们愿意接纳它们进入家庭。

但即便进展如此，泡沫可能仍在酝酿。去年11月，中国最高经济规划机构警示人形机器人行业可能出现泡沫，指出企业数量与投资规模已远超实际应用场景。事实是，它们尚未实现真正自主，除了爱好者和研究者，理智的消费者谁会购买？若需清洁服务，雇佣保洁员无需高昂预付成本，何不持币等待真正能胜任工作的机器人问世？

只要企业继续用华丽宣传片和远程操控来伪装自主机器人，我们就难辨虚实。或许机器人时代终将降临，或许我还有更多出糗视频可看。时间会给出答案，而我会备好爆米花静观其变。

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英文来源：

This is The Stepback, a weekly newsletter breaking down one essential story from the tech world. For more on robotics and AI, follow Robert Hart. The Stepback arrives in our subscribers’ inboxes at 8AM ET. Opt in for The Stepback here.
Humanoid robots are coming. Eventually?
China sees humanoids as an economic engine and Musk wants a ‘robot army.’
Humanoid robots are coming. Eventually?
China sees humanoids as an economic engine and Musk wants a ‘robot army.’
We’re taking a winter break! The Stepback will be back on January 11th, 2026. Meanwhile, you catch up on past issues here.
How it started
I have a soft spot for robot fail videos. I watch them on a loop, chuckling to myself, as a kind of therapy. Maybe I’m a sadist, maybe I need to get out more — you can judge me later — but they get me every time. So naturally, I’ve been glued to a clip of Tesla’s Optimus robot falling like a felled tree at the company’s Autonomy Visualized event in Miami that’s been doing the rounds on social media this week.
According to the footage, Elon Musk’s vaunted humanoid robot was handing out water bottles from behind a table before knocking a bunch over, flailing its arms upward, and collapsing backwards like a puppet whose strings had been severed. Watch closely and you’ll see two things: a small plume of water as its arm crushes a bottle mid-fall (it made me laugh), and a motion uncannily similar to someone removing a VR headset.
It wouldn’t be the first time Tesla has faked the autonomous part of its autonomous robot, which Musk says is central to the company’s future. An early demonstration was just a dancer in a skintight bodysuit to show what the Tesla Bot, now Optimus, could be. Later demonstrations were revealed to be (rather obviously, by the sound of it) humans in disguise, operating the robots remotely with something like a VR headset, which we know Tesla uses in development.
Humans have been obsessed with robots for centuries; from ancient tales of stone golems and artificial automatons to modern science fiction, driverless cars, and Roombas, the idea of animating the inanimate with something resembling life has fascinated us. Much of the current hype for humanoids can be traced directly to Musk, so it is reasonable to be more than a little bit skeptical when he and others promise they’ll revolutionize the world. Musk, who has vowed to build a “robot army” of 1 million humanoids, has a deserved reputation as an outlandish and unreliable forecaster, and robotics has ridden more than a few hype waves in its history. In the past, technology has always lagged the enthusiasm of those eager to bring AI into the real world, but today, we’re being told that tech is finally ready to deliver.
So what does ready to deliver actually look like in 2025?
How it’s going
There’s definitely a gold rush of sorts for humanoid robots right now. Every major tech company has them on their roadmap in some capacity, and the likes of Nvidia, Meta, SoftBank, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Intel, and Tesla (duh) are all throwing serious weight — and cash — behind them as the next big frontier in tech. And they’re not alone: A growing constellation of challengers want in on the action, including Apptronik, Boston Dynamics, Figure AI, and 1X.
China wants in, too. Beijing has decided embodied AI — which also includes non-humanoids like drones, quadrupeds, and other autonomous machines — is the key to future economic growth. In its trademark fashion, it has moved to position itself as a world leader in robotics through massive investment, government directives, and state subsidies. Everyone from tech giants Ant Group and Baidu to startups like Unitree and AgiBot is piling in.
If you go by the demos China and everyone else is pumping out, you’d be forgiven for thinking the humanoid robot future has already arrived. This summer, robots competed in dance, combat, track, and field events at the first World Humanoid Robot Games in China. A similar event was held in Greece — the International Humanoid Olympiad — at the birthplace of the Olympic Games. Humanoid fights are more popular than I could have imagined and are apparently taking place absolutely everywhere, from organized contests and underground fight clubs to sparring with CEOs.
Companies are also keen to get bots out of factories and into the home. These kinds of human-centric spaces are why advocates say humanoids are worth pursuing instead of other robot body types that could be easier to produce. Figure said its new Figure 03 robot can take on domestic chores, releasing a video of the bot doing dishes and folding clothes. 1X debuted Neo, which it claims is safe and “the world’s first consumer-ready humanoid robot.” There are also videos of Neo shakily completing basic household tasks. I’m not sure I can afford it, but if you’re interested, 1X is selling units for $20,000, with delivery starting in the US next year.
But actual use cases remain slim, and impressive demos are not the same as working products. For all the progress — and there have been impressive advances — demos are staged, scripted, or even teleoperated. For example, while it is technically true to say that Ant Group’s R1 was cooking for audiences at a trade show this year, it moved at a pace so glacial it would’ve thrilled Meryl Streep’s Miranda Priestly. Similarly, the idea of having 1X’s Neo sounds much less appealing once you realize you must also commit to having random humans telecommute into your home to control it remotely. And likewise, robot sport events are so fun to watch because the contestants are wobbly, uncertain, and unpredictable, not because they are proficient athletes.
All of this raises the obvious question: If the tech clearly doesn’t match the hype, why are so many people getting so excited about humanoids? Well, for the first time in a long time, it’s not that crazy to think the tech might be starting to catch up.
What happens next
Historically, it has been exceptionally difficult to get robots to perform even mundane tasks that humans do without thinking, like walking or picking up a glass of water. Hardware — but mostly software — was a limiting factor, and machines were confined to highly structured environments and very narrow tasks. Advances in AI are changing that and turbocharging robot development.
The extraordinary breakthroughs in AI image and text generation from companies like OpenAI and Google are largely down to large language models, or LLMs, that power chatbots. These work by using complex networks to recognize and reproduce patterns found in the massive amounts of data they are trained on. Bigger AI models are trained on practically everything that can be scraped from the internet, and the resulting systems are capable of acting in a generalized way, rather than following rigid, hand-coded rules. To function in the real world, robots need this kind of generalization, and roboticists are trying to use the same approach to give machines the flexible understanding of the physical world they’d need to survive in it.
The challenge here is data. The kind of material used to train LLMs was abundantly available online, but the data needed to train robots is not nearly as easy to come by. Robots need detailed examples of things moving in the real world, which doesn’t really exist at scale. Companies are working hard to change that, and there is a huge effort to create the kind of data needed to train robot models at scale. On the surface, this looks ridiculous — Tesla has workers don cameras and sensors to teach Optimus to behave like a human — but it’s working. It’s also why companies like 1X are deploying less-than-autonomous bots into peoples’ homes, as doing so gives them the opportunity to gather the data needed to make autonomous bots by conducting complex tasks remotely, such as loading the dishwasher or cleaning a tricky object.
Humanoids are becoming more affordable, too — particularly in China — as hardware costs sink and economies of scale kick in. While prices vary wildly — entry-level units can be as little as $1,400 for Chinese model Bumi to around $13,500–$20,000 for models from Unitree or 1X, while industrial models can cost more than houses — they’re approaching prices affordable by some consumers, meaning more bots are being deployed in the real world. This creates a feedback loop, as companies get more data to work with, they build better models and better robots that more people would want, presuming they’re willing to welcome them into their homes.
But even with all this progress, it may still be hype. In November, China’s leading economic planning agency warned a humanoid robot bubble could be brewing, contrasting the sheer number of companies and scale of investment with the absence of viable use cases. The fact is, they’re not really autonomous yet, so, other than hobbyists and researchers, who in their right mind would buy one? If I wanted to get someone in to clean my home, I could hire a cleaner without the hefty upfront cost and save my money until someone produces a robot that can actually do the task I bought it for.
Until companies stop hiding behind glitzy promo videos and teleoperating purportedly autonomous robots, it’s going to be hard to tell where we are. Maybe the robots are finally coming, or maybe I have many more fail videos coming my way. Time will tell, I guess, but I’ll get the popcorn ready.
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