内容来源：https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/21/1131366/rethinking-ais-future-in-an-augmented-workplace/

内容总结：

先锋集团研究揭示：AI将成职场“副驾驶”，重塑经济而非取代人力

近期，关于人工智能未来发展的讨论常陷入两种极端：要么被视作昙花一现的炒作泡沫，要么被描绘成导致大规模失业的颠覆性力量。然而，先锋集团全球首席经济学家约瑟夫·戴维斯及其团队基于涵盖130年的专有数据集所构建的“先锋大趋势模型”指出，AI更可能走出一条中间道路——它将成为一种通用技术，通过提升生产率、重塑行业形态来“增强”人类工作，而非简单取代。

职场变革：AI成为“副驾驶”，解放人力从事高价值任务
研究显示，尽管约20%的岗位可能因自动化面临风险，但超过八成的工作将呈现“创新与自动化并存”的格局。AI将扮演“副驾驶”角色，处理重复性任务，使员工能更专注于需要人类独特技能的高价值工作。戴维斯强调：“AI可能是自个人电脑以来最具颠覆性的工作形态变革技术，它不会消灭岗位，而是让人们转向更高价值的活动。”

经济影响：破解服务行业生产率瓶颈，缓解劳动力短缺
研究指出，近年来生产率增长乏力的一个关键原因，恰恰是自动化在服务业（占美国GDP超60%）的应用不足。AI将在医疗、教育、金融等领域发挥最大效能，例如通过简化数据录入，到2035年或可提升护理工作效率达20%。面对人口老龄化、劳动力减少的挑战，AI的自动化能力预计将在5至7年内等效于为美国劳动力市场增加约1600万至1700万工作者，有效抵消人口结构压力。

投资展望：最大受益者将是AI应用者，而非单纯制造商
戴维斯认为，AI的普及将使股市的最大赢家从技术供应商转向广泛的应用企业。历史表明，新技术的早期采纳者往往获得最大生产率红利。当前全球AI竞赛中，美国与中国处于领先地位，但日本、欧洲等自动化率低、服务业占比高的经济体也有巨大提升空间。真正转型的关键在于AI能否根本性重塑医疗、教育和金融这三大高需求、高成本行业。

戴维斯总结道：“维持现状实际上是最不可能出现的结果。AI对生产率的推动作用或将超过个人电脑。实现这一潜力的关键，取决于企业当下的投资与创新决心。”

中文翻译：

赞助内容

重新思考增强型职场中人工智能的未来

通过聚焦经济机遇与经济数据，对AI投资的担忧可以转化为明智的商业决策。

本文与Vanguard合作推出。

人工智能的演进路径多种多样。在光谱的一端，AI被斥为一种边缘化的潮流，是又一个由名声和资本错配催生的泡沫。在另一端，它则被描绘成一股反乌托邦的力量，注定会大规模消灭工作岗位并破坏经济稳定。市场在怀疑与错失恐惧之间摇摆不定，而技术本身却在飞速发展，投资资金的涌入速度达到了数十年来未见的水平。

与此同时，当今许多金融和经济思想领袖仍坚持一种共识，即未来几年的金融格局将与过去几年保持不变。两年前，Vanguard全球首席经济学家约瑟夫·戴维斯及其团队也曾持相同看法，但他们希望基于历史和数据的更深厚基础，形成自己对AI技术的见解。基于一个涵盖过去130年的专有数据集，戴维斯及其团队从研究中开发了一个新框架——Vanguard大趋势模型。该模型揭示了一条比极端炒作更为微妙的路径：AI有潜力成为一种通用技术，它能提升生产力、重塑行业，并增强而非取代人类工作。简而言之，AI既不会边缘化，也不会走向反乌托邦。

“我们的研究结果表明，维持现状——大多数经济学家的基本预期——实际上是最不可能出现的结果，”戴维斯说。“我们预测，AI对生产力的影响将比个人电脑更大。我们还预测，AI变革经济的可能性，远大于AI令人失望且财政赤字占主导地位的可能性。后者很可能导致经济增长放缓、通胀加剧和利率上升。”

对企业领导者和员工的影响

然而，戴维斯对此并不粉饰。尽管AI有望带来经济增长和生产力提升，但它也将带来颠覆性影响，尤其是对知识领域的领导者和员工。“AI很可能成为自个人电脑以来，改变我们工作性质最具颠覆性的技术，”戴维斯说。“一定年纪的人可能还记得个人电脑的普及如何重塑了许多工作。它并未消灭工作岗位，而是让人们得以专注于更高价值的活动。”

该团队的框架使他们能够审视AI自动化对800多种不同职业的风险。研究表明，虽然AI驱动的自动化可能导致超过20%的职业存在失业风险，但大多数工作——很可能五分之四——将走向创新与自动化的结合。员工的时间将越来越多地转向更高价值和更具人性化的任务。

这引出了一个观点：AI可以充当各种角色的“副驾驶”，执行重复性任务并辅助完成职责。戴维斯认为，传统经济模型常常低估AI的潜力，因为它们未能审视技术变革更深层次的结构性影响。“大多数思考未来增长的方法，例如GDP，未能充分考量AI，”他解释道。“它们未能将生产率的短期变化与技术变革的三个维度联系起来：自动化、增强和新行业的出现。”自动化通过处理常规任务来提高工人生产力；增强使技术能够充当副驾驶，放大人类技能；而新行业的创造则催生新的增长源泉。

对经济的影响

颇具讽刺意味的是，戴维斯的研究表明，近年来生产率增长相对较低的一个原因可能是自动化不足。尽管数字和自动化技术在过去十年中创新迅速，但自2008年金融危机以来，生产率增长一直滞后，达到50年来的低点。这似乎支持了AI影响将微乎其微的观点。但戴维斯认为，自动化的应用领域出现了偏差。“最让我惊讶的是，在金融、医疗保健和教育等服务领域，自动化程度如此之低，”他说。“在制造业之外，自动化一直非常有限。这至少阻碍了增长二十年。”服务业占美国GDP的60%以上和劳动力的80%，但其生产率增长却处于最低水平之列。戴维斯认为，正是在这里，AI将产生最大的影响。

经济面临的最大挑战之一是人口结构变化，随着婴儿潮一代退休、移民放缓以及出生率下降。这些人口逆风加剧了对技术加速的需求。“人们担心AI会走向反乌托邦并导致大规模失业，但我们很快将面临工人太少，而不是太多的问题，”戴维斯说。“随着人口老龄化，美国、日本、中国以及欧洲各国等经济体将需要加强自动化功能。”

以护理行业为例，这是一个同理心和人类在场感无可替代的职业。AI在该领域已显示出增强而非完全自动化的潜力，例如简化电子健康记录中的数据录入，帮助护士腾出更多时间用于患者护理。戴维斯估计，到2035年，这些工具可使护理生产力提高多达20%，这对于医疗系统适应人口老龄化和需求增长至关重要。“在我们认为最可能发生的情景中，AI将抵消人口结构压力。在五到七年内，AI自动化部分工作的能力，大致相当于为美国劳动力增加1600万至1700万工人，”戴维斯说。“这基本上等同于未来五年内所有年满65岁的人都决定不退休。”他预测，超过60%的职业，包括护士、家庭医生、高中教师、药剂师、人力资源经理和保险销售代理，将受益于AI作为增强工具。

对所有投资者的影响

随着AI技术的普及，股市中表现最强劲的将不是其生产者，而是其使用者。“这很合理，因为通用技术能提升整个行业的生产力、效率和盈利能力，”戴维斯说。AI的采用正在为投资选择创造灵活性，这意味着分散投资于科技股之外可能是合适的，正如Vanguard《2026年经济与市场展望》所反映的那样。“随着这种情况发生，收益将超越硅谷或波士顿等地，进入以变革性方式应用该技术的行业。”历史表明，新技术的早期采用者能获得最大的生产力回报。“我们显然正处于‘边做边学’的实验阶段，”戴维斯说。“那些鼓励并奖励实验的公司将从AI中获取最大价值。”

放眼全球，戴维斯认为美国和中国在AI竞赛中遥遥领先。“这几乎是势均力敌，”他说。“这表明两国之间的竞争将保持激烈。”但其他经济体，尤其是那些自动化率低、服务业规模大的经济体，如日本、欧洲和加拿大，也可能获得显著收益。“如果AI真要带来变革，有三个行业尤为突出：医疗保健、教育和金融，”戴维斯说。“AI要发挥其潜力，就必须从根本上重塑这些行业，它们正面临着高成本以及对更好、更快、更个性化服务日益增长的需求。”

然而，戴维斯表示，Vanguard对AI变革经济潜力的看法比一年前更为乐观。特别是因为这种变革需要在硅谷之外得到应用。“当我与企业领导者交谈时，我提醒他们，这种变革尚未发生，”戴维斯说。“正是他们的投资和创新将决定变革是否会发生。”

本内容由《麻省理工科技评论》定制内容部门Insights制作。非《麻省理工科技评论》编辑团队撰写。内容由人类作者、编辑、分析师和插画师研究、设计和撰写，包括调查问卷的撰写和数据收集。可能使用的AI工具仅限于经过严格人工审核的辅助性制作流程。

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英文来源：

Sponsored
Rethinking AI’s future in an augmented workplace
By focusing on the economic opportunities and economic data, fears about AI investment can turn into smart business decisions.
In partnership withVanguard
There are many paths AI evolution could take. On one end of the spectrum, AI is dismissed as a marginal fad, another bubble fueled by notoriety and misallocated capital. On the other end, it’s cast as a dystopian force, destined to eliminate jobs on a large scale and destabilize economies. Markets oscillate between skepticism and the fear of missing out, while the technology itself evolves quickly and investment dollars flow at a rate not seen in decades.
All the while, many of today’s financial and economic thought leaders hold to the consensus that the financial landscape will stay the same as it has been for the last several years. Two years ago, Joseph Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard, and his team felt the same but wanted to develop their perspective on AI technology with a deeper foundation built on history and data. Based on a proprietary data set covering the last 130 years, Davis and his team developed a new framework, The Vanguard Megatrends Model, from research that suggested a more nuanced path than hype extremes: that AI has the potential to be a general purpose technology that lifts productivity, reshapes industries, and augments human work rather than displaces it. In short, AI will be neither marginal nor dystopian.
“Our findings suggest that the continuation of the status quo, the basic expectation of most economists, is actually the least likely outcome,” Davis says. “We project that AI will have an even greater effect on productivity than the personal computer did. And we project that a scenario where AI transforms the economy is far more likely than one where AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate. The latter would likely lead to slower economic growth, higher inflation, and increased interest rates.”
Implications for business leaders and workers
Davis does not sugar-coat it, however. Although AI promises economic growth and productivity, it will be disruptive, especially for business leaders and workers in knowledge sectors. “AI is likely to be the most disruptive technology to alter the nature of our work since the personal computer,” says Davis. “Those of a certain age might recall how the broad availability of PCs remade many jobs. It didn’t eliminate jobs as much as it allowed people to focus on higher value activities.”
The team’s framework allowed them to examine AI automation risks to over 800 different occupations. The research indicated that while the potential for job loss exists in upwards of 20% of occupations as a result of AI-driven automation, the majority of jobs—likely four out of five—will result in a mixture of innovation and automation. Workers’ time will increasingly shift to higher value and uniquely human tasks.
This introduces the idea that AI could serve as a copilot to various roles, performing repetitive tasks and generally assisting with responsibilities. Davis argues that traditional economic models often underestimate the potential of AI because they fail to examine the deeper structural effects of technological change. “Most approaches for thinking about future growth, such as GDP, don’t adequately account for AI,” he explains. “They fail to link short-term variations in productivity with the three dimensions of technological change: automation, augmentation, and the emergence of new industries.” Automation enhances worker productivity by handling routine tasks; augmentation allows technology to act as a copilot, amplifying human skills; and the creation of new industries creates new sources of growth.
Implications for the economy
Ironically, Davis’s research suggests that a reason for the relatively low productivity growth in recent years may be a lack of automation. Despite a decade of rapid innovation in digital and automation technologies, productivity growth has lagged since the 2008 financial crisis, hitting 50-year lows. This appears to support the view that AI’s impact will be marginal. But Davis believes that automation has been adopted in the wrong places. “What surprised me most was how little automation there has been in services like finance, health care, and education,” he says. “Outside of manufacturing, automation has been very limited. That’s been holding back growth for at least two decades.” The services sector accounts for more than 60% of US GDP and 80% of the workforce and has experienced some of the lowest productivity growth. It is here, Davis argues, that AI will make the biggest difference.
One of the biggest challenges facing the economy is demographics, as the Baby Boomer generation retires, immigration slows, and birth rates decline. These demographic headwinds reinforce the need for technological acceleration. “There are concerns about AI being dystopian and causing massive job loss, but we’ll soon have too few workers, not too many,” Davis says. “Economies like the US, Japan, China, and those across Europe will need to step up function in automation as their populations age.”
For example, consider nursing, a profession in which empathy and human presence are irreplaceable. AI has already shown the potential to augment rather than automate in this field, streamlining data entry in electronic health records and helping nurses reclaim time for patient care. Davis estimates that these tools could increase nursing productivity by as much as 20% by 2035, a crucial gain as health-care systems adapt to ageing populations and rising demand. “In our most likely scenario, AI will offset demographic pressures. Within five to seven years, AI’s ability to automate portions of work will be roughly equivalent to adding 16 million to 17 million workers to the US labor force,” Davis says. “That’s essentially the same as if everyone turning 65 over the next five years decided not to retire.” He projects that more than 60% of occupations, including nurses, family physicians, high school teachers, pharmacists, human resource managers, and insurance sales agents, will benefit from AI as an augmentation tool.
Implications for all investors
As AI technology spreads, the strongest performers in the stock market won’t be its producers, but its users. “That makes sense, because general-purpose technologies enhance productivity, efficiency, and profitability across entire sectors,” says Davis. This adoption of AI is creating flexibility for investment options, which means diversifying beyond technology stocks might be appropriate as reflected in Vanguard’s Economic and Market Outlook for 2026. “As that happens, the benefits move beyond places like Silicon Valley or Boston and into industries that apply the technology in transformative ways.” And history shows that early adopters of new technologies reap the greatest productivity rewards. “We’re clearly in the experimentation phase of learning by doing,” says Davis. “Those companies that encourage and reward experimentation will capture the most value from AI.”
Looking globally, Davis sees the United States and China as significantly ahead in the AI race. “It’s a virtual dead heat,” he says. “That tells me the competition between the two will remain intense.” But other economies, especially those with low automation rates and large service sectors, like Japan, Europe, and Canada, could also see significant benefits. “If AI is truly going to be transformative, three sectors stand out: health care, education, and finance,” says Davis. “For AI to live up to its potential, it must fundamentally reshape these industries, which face high costs and rising demand for better, faster, more personalized services.”
However, Davis says Vanguard is more bullish on AI’s potential to transform the economy than it was just a year ago. Especially since that transformation requires application beyond Silicon Valley. “When I speak to business leaders, I remind them that this transformation hasn’t happened yet,” says Davis. “It’s their investment and innovation that will determine whether it does.”
This content was produced by Insights, the custom content arm of MIT Technology Review. It was not written by MIT Technology Review’s editorial staff. It was researched, designed, and written by human writers, editors, analysts, and illustrators. This includes the writing of surveys and collection of data for surveys. AI tools that may have been used were limited to secondary production processes that passed thorough human review.
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