内容来源：https://www.geekwire.com/2026/agents-openai-deepfakes-and-the-messy-reality-of-the-ai-boom-a-conversation-with-oren-etzioni/

内容总结：

资深AI专家警示：AI代理可靠性存疑，行业竞争格局或将重塑

在近日由埃森哲于华盛顿州贝尔维尤市举办的一场科技活动中，资深计算机科学家、艾伦人工智能研究所创始前CEO奥伦·埃齐奥尼对当前人工智能（AI）代理技术的发展现状与潜在风险发表了犀利见解。他指出，尽管AI正从“对话”迈向“执行”，但远未达到“人工可靠性”，其功能表现仍不稳定。

埃齐奥尼以自身使用ChatGPT的经历为例，描述了当前AI的局限：它时常无法直接完成任务，仍需用户手动操作。他联合创立的AI代理初创公司Vercept正致力于解决此问题，通过让AI直接“观看”屏幕并操作界面，以绕过不稳定的传统API连接方式。

然而，他认为更宏大的AI代理交互图景仍充满混乱与风险。他以短期内吸引160万AI代理入驻的纯机器人社交网络Moltbook为例，指出其虽是未来软件代理大规模互动的信号，但当前形态存在严重安全隐患，堪称“安全噩梦”，极易遭受提示词注入等攻击。

尖锐点评行业竞争，看好谷歌长期潜力

谈及科技巨头间的平台竞争，埃齐奥尼言辞尖锐。他质疑OpenAI除旗舰聊天机器人外缺乏连贯商业模式，并戏称若可做空其股票则会行动。相反，他更看好谷歌的垂直整合优势（从芯片、数据到模型与人才），认为其虽起步稍缓，但后劲十足。他同时指出，Anthropic与OpenAI在巨额烧钱冲刺IPO后，季度财报将揭示真正的赢家。

客观评价中国AI崛起，深度伪造威胁民主堪忧

埃齐奥尼特别强调，不应低估中国在AI领域的发展。研究数据显示，中国不仅在顶级AI会议论文数量上领先，质量也在显著提升，这一趋势在开源模型与技术创新上同样明显。

作为曾为2024年大选建立深度伪造检测工具的非营利组织TrueMedia.org的负责人，他对AI生成内容对民主的威胁发出警告。他指出，虽然上一轮选举中深度伪造未改变结果，但技术成本已大幅降低。他担忧未来可能出现“拒绝民主攻击”，即成千上万的AI代理在各级选举中协同生成海量虚假信息，令现有检测系统难以招架。

呼吁企业领导层亲身体验，挖掘AI真正价值

对于企业应用AI，埃齐奥尼建议领导者不应将此重任仅交由技术或法务部门。他提出三项核心建议：领导者无论职位高低均应亲自使用AI；建立激励制度鼓励团队实验；不应只追求用AI更快完成旧工作，而应探索唯有AI才能实现的新价值。“真正的黄金，”他说，“是让AI去做我们以前根本做不到的新事情。”

此次活动吸引了包括微软高管在内的众多行业领袖参与。埃齐奥尼目前身兼多职，除担任华盛顿大学教授外，还是AI代理初创公司Vercept的联合创始人、AI2孵化器的创始人兼技术总监以及Madrona风投的合伙人。

中文翻译：

【编者按】《变革先锋》是GeekWire推出的独立系列报道，也是2026年3月24日的一场专题活动（由埃森哲赞助），旨在探索AI智能体背后的人物、企业与核心思想。

奥伦·埃齐奥尼曾在不同浏览器窗口间反复切换，按照ChatGPT的逐步指示操作，最终忍无可忍地质问：到底是你为我工作，还是我为你工作？

当时ChatGPT的回答是：它无法真正替他完成工作。这位自上世纪80年代末便开始构建AI系统的计算机科学家指出，当前技术演进的关键节点，正是要填补AI"纸上谈兵"与"实际行动"之间的鸿沟。

然而即便AI智能体正从概念走向现实，埃齐奥尼坦言其功能存在的"锯齿状缺陷"仍是棘手难题：有时一个指令能节省一个半小时工作量，但换一个几乎相同的指令却可能生成一堆垃圾。

"我们尚未实现人工可靠性，"他表示，"这仍任重道远。"

上周在华盛顿州贝尔维尤市埃森哲主办的活动中，埃齐奥尼接受了GeekWire采访，现场听众包括微软高管。这位华盛顿大学教授身兼多职：AI智能体初创公司Vercept联合创始人、AI2孵化器创始人兼技术总监、Madrona风投合伙人，还曾担任艾伦人工智能研究所创始CEO。

当晚的交流中，埃齐奥尼就AI智能体的发展态势、科技巨头的平台竞争、中国AI研究的崛起、深度伪造对民主制度的持续威胁等议题发表见解，并对OpenAI提出尖锐批评，同时为企业领导者应用AI给出建议。

关于智能体：埃齐奥尼指出，当前可行的方案是委托AI处理小型专项工作流——那些以往需要在多个应用间切换并手动按步骤操作的任务。

以Vercept为例，其智能体可直接观察用户屏幕、定位按钮、读取文本并执行任务，而非依赖他称为"脆弱基础设施"的API和网络爬虫方案——这些方案往往因细微变动就失效。

但宏观图景更为复杂。埃齐奥尼评价"全机器人社交网络"Moltbook（曾在一个周末吸引160万AI智能体入驻）目前被过度炒作，但它预示了未来趋势：软件智能体将实现大规模交互。

他直言其中风险：Moltbook堪称"安全噩梦"，智能体在用户设备上运行时可访问私人信息，读取无人监管的外部发布内容，极易遭受提示词注入攻击。

对于微软AI首席执行官穆斯塔法·苏莱曼"我们正见证新数字物种诞生"的论断，埃齐奥尼明确表示反对："它们仍是工具，是强力工具，但终究是服务于人类的工具。"

关于平台竞争：被问及如何看待微软、谷歌、亚马逊、OpenAI和Anthropic的角逐时，他戏称若自己炒股就会做空OpenAI。

"他们像无头苍蝇般乱窜，"他质疑这家公司除旗舰聊天机器人外是否拥有连贯商业模式，"ChatGPT确实在印钞，但那不是他们的核心业务。"

他更看好垂直整合优势显著的谷歌："他们起步稍晚，但谷歌已蓄势待发——用技术术语说——即将碾压对手。"

埃齐奥尼指出，Anthropic和OpenAI在烧钱冲刺IPO，上市后的季度财报将揭示真正赢家。

关于中国：埃齐奥尼强调，认为中国AI研究缺乏原创的刻板印象早已过时。

他引用艾伦人工智能研究所的追踪研究：在顶级AI会议上，中国论文数量与质量同步提升，这种趋势同样体现在开源模型和技术创新领域。

"我其实对华态度强硬——非常关注中国在全球的角色，"他说，"但解决方案绝非低估对手，那将酿成大错。"

关于深度伪造：埃齐奥尼曾花费一年多时间运营非营利组织TrueMedia.org，为新闻机构和事实核查员开发检测工具以应对2024年大选期间的深度伪造。好消息是深度伪造未显著改变选举结果，坏消息是这项技术部署成本已大幅降低且更易操作。

他担忧未来可能出现"民主拒绝攻击"——不是单个病毒式深度伪造，而是成千上万AI智能体在国会、校委会、市长选举中协同投放伪造信息，其规模将超出当前检测系统处理能力。

"2024年的战役我们赢了，但下一场战争正在逼近。"

关于领导力：埃齐奥尼强调AI应用不能简单委托给首席信息官或法务总监。他提出三点建议：

• 亲身使用AI（无论你是CEO还是保洁员）
• 建立激励制度鼓励团队进行AI实验
• 不要仅用AI加速现有工作，要探索只有AI能实现的新领域

"真正的黄金机遇，"他说，"在于让AI完成我们从未涉足的新任务。"

完整对话可收听上方GeekWire播客节目，或在Apple Podcasts、Spotify等平台订阅GeekWire。

英文来源：

[Editor’s Note: Agents of Transformation is an independent GeekWire series and March 24, 2026 event, underwritten by Accenture, exploring the people, companies, and ideas behind AI agents.]
Oren Etzioni got so frustrated flipping between browser windows and following ChatGPT’s step-by-step instructions that he finally asked: Do you work for me, or do I work for you?
ChatGPT’s answer at the time: no, it couldn’t actually do the work for him. Etzioni, a computer scientist who has been building AI systems since the late 1980s, says filling that gap between AI talking and AI taking action is what defines this moment in the technology’s evolution.
But even as AI agents move from concept to reality, Etzioni says the “jagged edge” of functionality remains a stubborn problem: give an agent one request and it saves an hour and a half of work, then give it something nearly identical and it produces garbage.
“We haven’t achieved artificial reliability,” he said. “That’s still a ways off.”
Etzioni spoke with GeekWire at an event hosted by Accenture in Bellevue, Wash., last week, with an audience that included leaders from Microsoft. The University of Washington professor is co-founder of AI agent startup Vercept, founder and technical director of the AI2 Incubator, venture partner at Madrona, and former founding CEO of the Allen Institute for AI.
Over the course of the evening, Etzioni fielded questions about the emerging landscape of AI agents, the platform competition among the major tech companies, China’s rise in AI research, and the evolving threat of deepfakes to democracy. He also offered some sharp words for OpenAI and advice for leaders navigating AI adoption.
On agents: Etzioni said what’s working now is delegating small, specific workflows — the kind of tasks that used to require flipping between apps and following instructions manually.
Vercept, for example, lets an agent see what’s on your screen, find the buttons, read the text, and execute tasks directly, rather than relying on what he called the “rickety infrastructure” of APIs and web scraping that breaks whenever something changes.
The bigger picture is messier. Etzioni described Moltbook — the bot-only social network that attracted 1.6 million AI agents over a weekend — as overhyped in its current form, but a signal of what’s coming: a future where software agents interact with each other at scale.
He was blunt about the risks: Moltbook is a “security nightmare,” with agents running on users’ machines, accessing private information, and reading externally posted text that nobody controls, making them vulnerable to prompt injection attacks.
Etzioni pushed back on more dramatic framings of the moment, disagreeing with Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman’s claim that we’re witnessing the birth of a new digital species.
“These are still tools,” he said. “Power tools, but still tools working on our behalf.”
On the platform competition: Asked how he sees the race among Microsoft, Google, Amazon, OpenAI, and Anthropic, he said he’d short OpenAI stock, if he did that sort of thing.
“They’re running around like a thousand chickens with their heads cut off,” he said, questioning whether the company has a coherent business model beyond its flagship chatbot. “Sure, they’re printing money on ChatGPT, but that’s not their business.”
He’s more bullish on Google, which he described as having the advantage of being vertically integrated, from chips to data to models to talent. “They start on the back foot,” he said, “but Google is poised to — I think the technical phrase is — kick their ass.”
Anthropic and OpenAI are racing toward IPOs as they burn through cash. Once they’re public, Etzioni noted, the quarter-by-quarter results will reveal who’s actually winning.
On China: Etzioni said the stereotype that the country’s AI work is derivative is no longer true.
He pointed to research his team did at the Allen Institute for AI, tracking academic papers at top AI conferences, which showed Chinese papers rising not just in volume but in quality. That trend, he said, has played out in open-source models and technical innovation as well.
“I’m actually a China hawk — I’m very concerned about China’s role in the world,” he said. “But the solution is not to underestimate, because that would be a mistake.”
On deepfakes: Etzioni spent more than a year running TrueMedia.org, a nonprofit he founded to build tools for newsrooms and fact-checkers to detect deepfakes in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. The good news, he said, is that deepfakes didn’t significantly change election outcomes. The bad news is that the technology has gotten much cheaper and easier to deploy.
Looking forward, he’s concerned about a “denial of democracy attack” — not a single viral deepfake but thousands of AI agents flooding congressional, school board, and mayoral races with coordinated fake media at a scale that current detection systems can’t handle.
“The last war, which was 2024, we won,” he said. “The next war is coming.”
On leadership: Etzioni said AI adoption is not something leaders can delegate to a CIO or general counsel. His three pieces of advice:

• Use AI yourself, whether you’re the CEO or the janitor.
• Build incentive structures that encourage your team to experiment with it.
• Don’t just use AI to do existing work faster; look for things only possible with AI.
  “The real gold,” he said, “is when you’re getting AI to do new things that we just didn’t do before.”
  Listen to the full conversation on the GeekWire Podcast above, or subscribe to GeekWire in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.