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硅谷最强大的联盟如今更是如虎添翼。

qimuai 发布于 阅读：1 一手编译

硅谷最强大的联盟如今更是如虎添翼。

内容来源：https://www.theverge.com/command-line-newsletter/773260/google-apple-search-deal-money-ai

内容总结：

美国法官裁定谷歌与苹果默认搜索引擎协议有效，科技巨头双赢格局获司法背书

本周，美国法官阿米特·梅塔（Amit Mehta）就谷歌反垄断案作出关键裁决，允许谷歌继续向苹果支付高额费用以维持其Safari浏览器默认搜索引擎地位。这一判决被视为硅谷两大巨头的重要胜利，同时为双方在人工智能领域的深度合作扫清障碍。

法庭文件显示，谷歌每年向苹果支付的费用约占苹果年利润的15%。苹果服务业务高级副总裁埃迪·库伊（Eddy Cue）在庭审中曾坦言，为维护这笔价值数百亿美元的合作"夜不能寐"。其主张最终被法官采纳——梅塔在判决书中指出，禁止默认支付协议将对苹果等受益企业造成"致命打击"，可能导致"产品减少和创新力下降"。

法官同时认可了库伊关于"AI正在重塑搜索市场"的论述，指出OpenAI、Perplexity等生成式AI企业的崛起已构成实质性竞争。判决书特别强调："资金正以惊人速度涌入该领域，这种新形势使法院相信，当出现更优秀产品时，谷歌无法单纯依靠财力垄断分发渠道。"

值得关注的是，判决公布后立即传出苹果与谷歌就Gemini人工智能技术达成合作的消息。据透露，双方计划将Gemini集成至iOS系统，为Siri提供AI搜索支持。分析师认为，司法背书使这两家掌控互联网入口的巨头得以将联盟延伸至AI时代，苹果可借助谷歌技术弥补自身AI研发滞后，同时继续获得可观分成。

科技投研机构MoffettNathanson在客户报告中指出："这一判决维护了现有市场格局，而现有格局对谷歌和苹果极为有利。"尽管反垄断威胁仍未完全解除，但两家公司现已获得更大主导权来按自身步调完成技术转型。

业界担忧，该裁决可能使新兴AI企业陷入被动。OpenAI与苹果就ChatGPT达成的分发协议面临变数，因其既无法匹配谷歌的支付能力，也缺乏广告业务分成基础。微软等竞争对手短期内难以通过产品优势突破双头垄断格局。

此次司法判决意味着，在可预见的未来，谷歌与苹果仍将通过深度绑定共享收益，这种持续近二十年的合作模式将继续塑造整个科技行业的竞争生态。

中文翻译：

埃迪·库伊该加薪了
硅谷最强联盟如今更加牢不可破
苹果继续坐收谷歌的钞票，谷歌则通过苹果渠道推广其人工智能。感谢梅塔法官。
作为苹果服务业务的负责人，他极力维护着谷歌为成为Safari默认搜索引擎每年支付的数百亿美元。"我为此失眠了很多次"，今年早些时候他在谷歌反垄断审判的证人席上这样说道。

库伊的法庭证词显然对阿米特·梅塔法官产生了重要影响——这位法官本周裁定谷歌可以继续向苹果等公司支付默认搜索地位费用。梅塔判决书中的论点与库伊的法庭陈述如出一辙：这位苹果高管曾表示，通过限制谷歌购买默认搜索地位来惩罚iPhone制造商是"疯狂之举"，并指出AI公司的崛起正在重塑搜索市场格局。为淡化苹果与谷歌交易的重要性，库伊甚至宣称Safari中的谷歌搜索量首次出现下滑，此举一度导致谷歌股价下跌。

这些正是梅塔最终在判决书中采纳的核心论点。他承认默认搜索支付仍在"塑造通用搜索服务市场格局使其有利于谷歌"，但禁止此类支付将对收款方造成"严重"的连锁影响。他特别指出这将导致"全球最富有的公司之一苹果减少产品数量和创新动力"（谷歌向苹果支付的费用估计约占其年利润的15%）。

梅塔以OpenAI和Perplexity等生成式AI公司的崛起作为搜索市场终现竞争的证据。"涌入该领域的资金规模及速度令人震惊"，他在判决书中写道，"这些新现实让法院相信，若出现更优秀的产品，谷歌不会仅通过高价竞标来维持分销优势"。

但梅塔心知肚明，谷歌与苹果财务关系的复杂性远不止于此。历史上谷歌一直将其通过Safari获得的广告收入按比例支付给苹果。这种利益捆绑让全球最具实力的两家公司形成了激励协同，过去近二十年间双方均从中获益匪浅。

就在梅塔裁决公布后，立即传出苹果正与谷歌合作探讨让Gemini为其为Siri开发的AI搜索引擎提供技术支持的消息，这恐怕并非巧合。苹果高管们讨论Gemini集成至iOS系统已逾一年，但因显而易见的舆论压力迟迟未决。如今美国政府为他们亮了绿灯。

"这个结果是对现状的全面肯定，而现状对谷歌和苹果都极为有利"，科技与媒体股研究公司MoffettNathanson本周在致客户报告中写道，"我们并非认为搜索或设备领域的未来已无竞争威胁，但该判决使得转型得以按它们的条件而非通过破坏性裁决来推进。"

苹果与谷歌的搜索协议本应被终止——若苹果日后成为反垄断焦点，这个结局或许仍会出现。多年来我与众多潜在谷歌搜索竞争对手交流时，他们都指认这项协议是抑制竞争的关键因素。甚至可以断言，纵观硅谷发展史，没有哪项协议比这更具深远影响。最令人不安的是，它使得本已掌控大多数人互联网接入渠道的两家公司共同变得更加财雄势大。

这项被允许存续的合作关系，为苹果谷歌将联合主导地位延伸至AI时代铺平道路。苹果虽在AI领域落后，却仍是通过iPhone、iPad和Mac为Gemini提供分销渠道的重要力量。既然谷歌的搜索支付持续进账，苹果何必收购Mistral或Perplexity等初创公司来追赶？与全球顶尖AI公司合作本就能获得收益，如今更获得深化合作的自由通行证。

本周的裁决也将OpenAI与苹果就ChatGPT达成的分销协议置于尴尬境地。苹果固然希望保留选择权，但绝不会为OpenAI危及与谷歌的摇钱树关系。OpenAI目前也没有广告业务能为苹果提供具有竞争力的分成。尽管梅塔持不同看法，但很难想象有其他公司能凭更优产品超越谷歌的默认搜索支付（微软抱歉了）。这一切使谷歌和苹果始终维持着原有状态：两个实际垄断者相互哺育，代价由其他所有人承担。

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英文来源：

Eddy Cue deserves a raise.
Silicon Valley’s most powerful alliance just got stronger
Apple gets to keep Google’s money, and Google gets Apple’s distribution for its AI. Thanks, Judge Mehta.
Apple gets to keep Google’s money, and Google gets Apple’s distribution for its AI. Thanks, Judge Mehta.
As the executive overseeing Apple’s services division, he’s highly incentivized to protect the tens of billions of dollars a year that Google pays to be the default search engine in Safari. “I’ve lost a lot of sleep thinking about it,” he said from the witness stand during Google’s antitrust trial earlier this year.
Luckily for Cue, his court testimony appears to have had a significant impact on Judge Amit Mehta, who ruled this week that Google’s default payments to Apple and others can continue. You can see Cue’s arguments at trial mirrored in Mehta’s ruling: the Apple SVP said it would be “crazy” to punish the iPhone maker by restricting Google’s ability to pay for default status, and that the rise of AI companies was remaking the search market anyway. In an attempt to downplay the significance of Apple and Google’s deal, Cue went so far as to say that Google searches in Safari were declining for the first time, which temporarily caused Google’s stock price to drop.
Those are the exact arguments Mehta ultimately made in his ruling. He acknowledged that default payments continue to “shape the market for general search services in Google’s favor,” but that banning them would have “crippling” downstream effects on the recipients of those payments. One specific effect he cited was “fewer products and less product innovation from Apple,” one of the world’s richest companies. (Google’s payments to Apple are estimated to make up about 15% of its annual profit.)
Mehta cited the rise of generative AI companies like OpenAI and Perplexity as evidence that there is finally competition in the search market. “The money flowing into this space, and how quickly it has arrived, is astonishing,” he wrote. “These new realities give the court hope that Google will not simply outbid competitors for distribution if superior products emerge.”
As Mehta well knows, the reality of Google and Apple’s financial relationship is much more complicated than that. Google has historically paid Apple a percentage of the ad revenue it earns via Safari. This aligns incentives between two of the most powerful companies on earth, both of which have shared in the upside of this arrangement for the better part of two decades.
It’s likely not a coincidence that, right after Mehta’s ruling was released, news broke that Apple is now collaborating with Google to potentially have Gemini power the AI search engine it’s developing for Siri. Apple executives have been discussing the integration of Gemini into iOS for over a year, but have held back due to obvious optics reasons. The US government has just given them permission to proceed.
“This outcome is a home run for the status quo, and the status quo has been very favorable to both Google and Apple,” the tech and media stock research firm MoffettNathanson wrote in a note to its clients this week. “We’re not suggesting that the future of search or devices is now free from competitive threat, but this decision allows the transition ahead to unfold on their terms rather than through a disruptive and damaging judgment.”
Apple and Google’s search deal should have been undone, and perhaps it still will be if Apple eventually gets its turn under the antitrust spotlight. I’ve spoken with many would-be Google Search rivals over the years who have pointed to the deal as a key factor in stifling competition. You could argue that no deal has had a greater impact on Silicon Valley over the long arc of time, in fact. The most sinister aspect is that it has enabled the two companies that already control how most people access the internet to become richer and more powerful together.
The relationship being allowed to continue now sets the stage for Apple and Google to extend their shared dominance into the age of AI. Apple is behind on AI, but remains a powerful source of distribution for Gemini via iPhones, iPads, and Macs. With search payments from Google continuing to roll in, why would Apple need to acquire a startup like Mistral or Perplexity to play catch-up? It’s already getting paid to work with one of the world’s leading AI companies and now has carte blanche to forge deeper ties.
This week’s ruling also puts OpenAI’s distribution deal with Apple for ChatGPT in a tough spot. I’m sure Apple likes having optionality, but it’s not going to jeopardize the Google relationship with the money from search continuing. OpenAI doesn’t yet have an ads business to give Apple a competitive cut from, either. Despite what Mehta thinks, it’s hard to imagine any other company being able to exceed Google’s default payments with a superior product (sorry, Microsoft). This all leaves Google and Apple where they’ve been all along: two de facto monopolies feeding each other at the expense of everyone else.
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