«

人工智能引发的能源危机或许有些言过其实。

qimuai 发布于 阅读：5 一手编译

人工智能引发的能源危机或许有些言过其实。

内容来源：https://www.theverge.com/report/782952/ai-electricity-demand-inflated-forecast-report

内容总结：

近期，美国科技行业对人工智能（AI）算力需求的激增引发了对电力供应体系的连锁反应。尽管部分观点认为AI的能耗问题可能被高估，但其对电网造成的压力已不容忽视。行业盲目扩张与过度规划，恐将导致美国陷入高成本、高污染的化石能源路径依赖。

能耗激增：AI数据中心用电量堪比小型城镇
与传统数据中心相比，AI模型训练与运行需搭载高性能芯片，能耗呈指数级增长。标准数据显示，传统机柜功耗约为6-8千瓦，而AI专用高密度机柜功耗可达100千瓦，相当于80至100户美国家庭的用电总量。有分析师指出，单个AI数据中心的耗电量已堪比一座小型城镇。

规划泡沫：电力需求预测存在严重虚高风险
随着资本涌入AI领域，投机性数据中心项目激增。为抢占电网接入资源，部分开发商在缺乏明确客户与资金保障的情况下，仍向多家电力公司提交超额用电申请，导致需求预测被重复计算。独立研究显示，部分地区电力公司的需求增长率预测高达行业实际趋势的四倍，存在严重泡沫风险。德州Vistra能源公司CEO在财报会议中坦言，当前电网接入申请量可能超出实际需求3至5倍。

结构性矛盾：化石能源扩张与清洁转型目标冲突
为应对预期用电负荷，多家电力公司加速推进天然气发电厂与管道建设。若2023至2025年间所有拟建燃气项目落地，美国燃气发电规模将扩大近三分之一。这种依赖化石能源的路径，与2035年实现无碳电网的清洁能源目标背道而驰。以路易斯安那州为例，为满足Meta新建数据中心的用电需求，当地计划新建三座燃气电厂，预计15年内将产生1亿吨碳排放。

治理挑战：短期利益与长期可持续性的博弈
行业报告指出，电力公司可通过提高项目定金、取消违约金等合同条款规避投机风险，科技企业也需加强技术能效提升与可再生能源采购。然而，当前政策环境与商业利益形成错位：特朗普政府倾向支持化石能源，而科技巨头此前曾是可再生能源采购主力。若企业仅追逐AI竞争红利而忽视可持续承诺，美国能源转型进程可能受阻。

专家警告，若不对AI能耗需求进行精准评估与透明规划，美国民众终将承担电价上涨、资产闲置与环境污染的多重代价。在技术革新与能源安全的平衡木上，理性规划比盲目扩张更为紧迫。

中文翻译：

即便人工智能的能耗问题最终并未如人们渲染的那般严重，它仍可能给美国各地电网带来麻烦。

关于人工智能引发能源危机的预言或许有些夸大其词。对数据中心能源需求的高估，可能导致美国被不必要的昂贵化石燃料项目和污染问题所束缚。

科技公司为训练和运行新人工智能模型已消耗着日益增长的电力。当它们试图在竞争中超越对手时，对电力的需求更是急剧增加。这种不断增长的需求已开始重塑能源体系，公用事业公司正匆忙建设新的天然气发电厂和管道。

但所有这些重塑美国能源体系的计划，可能都建立在人工智能泡沫之上。过度狂热的投资者向科技公司注入资金，这些公司唯恐错过风口，却仍面临开发出最终失败的人工智能工具的风险。与此同时，公用事业公司也面临着一波关于数据中心能源需求的投机浪潮。

"这种不确定性令人不安"

一份最新报告警告称，考虑到美国人最终可能要为更高的公用事业费用和更多污染付出代价，这种不确定性令人不安。美国向更清洁、更实惠能源的转型一直进展缓慢。除非科技公司和公用事业公司要求更高的透明度并选择更多太阳能和风能等可再生能源，否则这一转型将面临危险。

"虽然人工智能热潮带来了令人兴奋的机遇，但如果在应对能源需求时没有采取深思熟虑、充分了解情况并考虑长期影响的措施，将会带来许多风险，"本月由股东倡导组织"As You Sow"和环保组织塞拉俱乐部发布的报告的主要作者凯利·普尔在与记者的简报会上表示。

如果2023年1月至2025年1月间（生成式人工智能产业升温期间）提议的所有新天然气项目都得以实现，那么美国全国的燃气发电厂规模将增长近三分之一。在此期间，公用事业公司和独立开发商提议的新天然气发电能力猛增了70%，其主要推动力正是数据中心电力需求的增长。

在生成式人工智能热潮之前，由于能源效率的提高，美国的电力需求在十多年里几乎持平。但为人工智能升级的新数据中心，其能耗远高于过去。标普全球首席研究分析师丹·汤普森在简报中解释说，传统数据中心的一排计算机可能使用6-8千瓦的功率——大约相当于美国家庭三户的用电量。然而，人工智能需要更强大的计算机芯片来运行更复杂的任务。据汤普森称，运行一个高密度机架所需的功率约等于80到100户家庭的用电量，或超过100千瓦。

"本质上，你看到的是一个相当于小镇规模的电力需求被部署，"他说。

这为何重要？电网基本上像一个不稳定的平衡装置在运作。如果电力供应无法满足需求增长，可能导致电费上涨和潜在的停电。另一方面，过度建设新的发电能力存在创建搁浅资产的风险，无论长期是否真正需要，公用事业公司及其客户最终都要为此买单。这就是为什么对未来需求进行准确预测如此重要。

"本质上，你看到的是一个相当于小镇规模的电力需求被部署。"

尽管人工智能确实消耗大量能源，但对其未来的预测却变得模糊不清。报告指出，"投机者正涌入市场"，寻求建造并转售数据中心。为了试图提前应对接入电网的漫长等待时间，一些投机者甚至在获得资金或确定客户之前就申请用电，以确保项目能够完成。在预测人工智能能源需求时，可能还存在重复计算的情况，因为开发商会接洽多家公用事业公司以获取多个报价。

根据能源经济与金融分析研究所今年早些时候的一份报告，在数据中心的主要枢纽东南部地区，公用事业公司预测的需求增长高达独立行业趋势分析结果的四倍。另一份2024年12月的报告指出，在全国范围内，公用事业公司准备应对的需求增长比科技行业预期的高出50%。

公用事业公司自身在近期的财报电话会议中也意识到了这一风险。总部位于德克萨斯州的Vistra Energy公司首席执行官吉姆·伯克在今年第一季度的财报电话会议上表示，试图接入电网的拟议项目"可能被夸大了三到五倍，超出实际可能实现的程度"。

尽管存在不确定性，他们仍在建设新的天然气发电厂和管道以满足这种需求。毕竟，建设新基础设施是公用事业公司增加利润最赚钱的途径之一。而当前，其竞选得到石油和天然气行业资助的特朗普政府，正在鼓励对化石燃料的依赖。例如，在路易斯安那州，当地公用事业公司Entergy提议新建三座天然气发电厂，为一个庞大的新Meta数据中心供电。据估计，该数据中心将消耗相当于150万户家庭的电量，并在15年内导致1亿吨碳排放。

这与拜登政府提出的到2035年实现电网100%无碳污染能源运行的目标形成鲜明对比。要阻止气候变化，唯一途径是消除化石燃料产生的导致全球变暖的污染。仓促建设新的天然气基础设施显然使国家走向了相反的方向。

As You Sow和塞拉俱乐部在其报告中指出，有解决方案可以最小化所有这些风险。公用事业公司可以要求开发商披露他们已将其数据中心提案提交给了多少其他公用事业公司，以及项目最终确定的进展程度。在签订合同时，他们还可以要求长期服务协议，提高不可退还的定金，并增加项目取消的费用。

科技公司显然也扮演着重要角色，可以通过提高其技术能效和投资可再生能源来实现。多年来，包括亚马逊、Meta和谷歌在内的科技巨头一直是可再生能源的主要企业购买者。如果公司愿意将自身的可持续发展目标置于与人工智能雄心同等重要的位置，那么签订此类长期协议以建设新的太阳能和风能发电场，现在可以产生更大影响，抵消特朗普政府撤销可再生能源财政激励措施带来的负面影响。

最受欢迎文章

英文来源：

Even if AI turns out not to be as much of an energy hog as people are making it out to be, it could still spell out trouble for power grids across the US.
The AI-energy apocalypse might be a little overblown
Inflated projections for data center energy demands could lock the US into unnecessary, costly fossil fuel projects and pollution.
Inflated projections for data center energy demands could lock the US into unnecessary, costly fossil fuel projects and pollution.
Tech companies are already burning through increasing amounts of electricity to train and run new AI models. And they’re asking for a lot more electricity as they try to outcompete each other. That rising demand is already starting to reshape the energy system, with utilities scrambling to build out new gas plants and pipelines.
But all these plans to reshape the US energy system could be based on an AI bubble. With overexcited investors pumping money into tech companies afraid of missing the bandwagon but still at risk of developing AI tools that ultimately flop, utilities are also faced with a wave of speculation over data centers’ energy needs.
“The uncertainty is unnerving”
The uncertainty is unnerving considering the costs that Americans could wind up paying when it comes to higher utility bills and more pollution, a recent report warns. A transition to cleaner and more affordable energy sources has been making progress slowly in the US. That’s in peril unless tech companies and utilities demand more transparency and opt for more renewables like solar and wind energy.
“While the AI boom provides exciting opportunities, there are many risks to not approaching energy needs with a deliberate and informed response that takes long term impacts into account,” Kelly Poole, lead author of the report published this month by shareholder advocacy group As You Sow and environmental organization Sierra Club, said in a briefing with reporters.
The nation’s fleet of gas-fired power plants would grow by nearly a third if all of the new gas projects proposed between January 2023 and January 2025, as the generative AI industry heated up, come to fruition. The amount of new gas capacity that utilities and independent developers proposed jumped by 70 percent during that time frame, driven in large part by rising data center electricity demand.
Prior to the generative AI boom, electricity demand had pretty much flatlined for more than a decade with energy efficiency gains. But new data centers, souped-up for AI, are a lot more energy-hungry than they have been in the past. A rack of computers in a traditional data center might use 6-8 kilowatts of power — roughly equivalent to the power used by three homes in the US, Dan Thompson, a principal research analyst at S&P Global, explained in the briefing. AI, however, requires more powerful computer chips to run more complicated tasks. The power required to run one of those high-density racks equals about 80 to 100 homes’ worth of power, or upward of 100 kilowatts, according to Thompson.
“Essentially what you’re looking at is a small town’s worth of power being deployed,” he said.
Why does that matter? Power grids basically function as a precarious balancing act. If power supply can’t meet demand growth, it could lead to higher utility bills and potential outages. On the other hand, overbuilding new capacity risks creating stranded assets that utilities and their customers wind up paying for regardless of whether or not they actually need them in the long term. That’s why it’s so important to try to get an accurate forecast of future demand.
“Essentially what you’re looking at is a small town’s worth of power being deployed.”
And while AI does use a lot of energy, projections for the future get murky. “Speculators are flooding the market,” the report says, seeking to build and flip data centers. Trying to get ahead of long wait times to connect to the power grid, some of those speculators are requesting power even before they’ve got the capital or customers lined up to ensure they can bring a project to the finish line. There could also be some double or triple counting (or more) going on when it comes to forecasting AI energy demand because of developers approaching more than one utility to get several quotes.
In the Southeast, a major hub for data centers, utilities are projecting as much as four times more demand growth compared to independent analyses of industry trends, according to a report earlier this year from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). Nationally, utilities are preparing for 50 percent more demand growth than the tech industry is expecting, a separate report from December 2024 states.
Utilities themselves have recognized this risk on recent earnings calls. Proposed projects trying to connect to the grid “may be overstated anywhere from three to five times what might actually materialize,” Jim Burke, CEO of Texas-based Vistra Energy, said in a Q1 earnings call this year.
Despite the uncertainty, they’re still building out new gas power plants and pipelines to meet that demand. After all, building new infrastructure is one of the most lucrative ways for a utility to increase profits. And right now, the Trump administration — whose campaign was buoyed by oil and gas contributions — is incentivizing reliance on fossil fuels. In Louisiana, for example, local utility Entergy proposed building three new gas plants to power a giant new Meta data center. The data center is estimated consume as much electricity as 1.5 million homes and lead to 100 million tons of carbon emissions over 15 years.
It’s a stark contrast from the Biden administration’s goal of getting the power grid to run on 100 percent carbon pollution-free energy by 2035. The only way to stop climate change in its tracks is to get rid of planet-heating pollution from fossil fuels. Building a rush of new gas infrastructure obviously moves the nation in the opposite direction.
There are solutions to minimize all these risks, As You Sow and Sierra Club point out in their report. Utilities can require developers to disclose the number of other utilities they’ve brought their data center proposal to and how far along they are in finalizing a project. When inking contracts, they can also require long-term service agreements, hike-up nonrefundable deposits, and raise fees for canceling a project.
Tech companies clearly have a big role to play, too, by improving the energy efficiency of their technologies and investing in renewables. For years, tech giants including Amazon, Meta, and Google have been top corporate purchasers of renewable energy. Inking those kinds of long-term agreements to build out new solar and wind farms can have even more impact now, counteracting the Trump administration’s rollback of financial incentives for renewables, if companies are willing to prioritize their own sustainability goals as much as their AI ambitions.
Most Popular

ThevergeAI大爆炸

文章目录

    📚 推荐阅读


    扫描二维码，在手机上阅读
    版权所有：启幕AI
    文章标题：人工智能引发的能源危机或许有些言过其实。
    文章链接：https://qimuai.cn/?post=1008
    本站文章均为原创，未经授权请勿用于任何商业用途